If you’ve been watching interest rates with half an eye on your mortgage, the next Bank of England decision feels like a long-awaited answer. The MPC is set to meet on 18 June 2026, and experts predict the base rate will stay at 3.75% for the rest of the year – here’s what that means for your mortgage and savings.

4 related posts

Current Bank Rate: 3.75% · Next MPC Decision: 18 June 2026 · Forecast End-2026: 3.75% (expert consensus) · Last Change: Cut to 3.75% (December 2025) · MPC Meetings per Year: 8

Quick snapshot

1Next BoE Decision Date
2Rate Prediction for 2026
3Mortgage Rate Outlook
  • Rates have fallen from 2023 peaks (HomeOwners Alliance, property advice charity)
  • Potential to reach 4% again by late 2026 or 2027 (MoneySavingExpert, consumer finance authority)
  • Affected by swap rates and global events
4Fixed-Term Decision Guide
  • 2-year fix: flexibility if rates drop further
  • 5-year fix: stability and peace of mind
  • Consider your age, retirement plans, and risk appetite

Six key data points frame the picture for UK borrowers.

Metric Value
Next MPC meeting 18 June 2026
Current Bank Rate 3.75%
Predicted rate end of 2026 3.75% (expert consensus)
Last major change Cut from 5.25% to 3.75% (December 2025)
Number of rate decisions per year 8
Inflation target 2%
Latest CPI inflation 3.3% (BoE, April 2026)
April 2026 MPC vote 8–1 to hold, 1 vote for a rise to 4%

What date is the next interest rate decision?

Bank of England MPC meeting calendar for 2026

  • 18 June 2026 — next scheduled announcement (Bank of England MPC dates page)
  • August 2026 — following meeting
  • September 2026 — third meeting of the second half
  • November 2026 — penultimate meeting
  • December 2026 — final meeting of the year

How the decision is announced

The MPC releases its decision at 12:00 noon UK time on the scheduled day. A summary of the meeting and the voting breakdown (MoneySavingExpert, consumer finance authority) follows the announcement. The full minutes are published two weeks later.

The implication: if you are planning to remortgage around June, wait until after the decision to lock a rate — swap markets may shift immediately after the announcement.

What is the next interest rate prediction for the Bank of England?

Expert forecast: Base rate to stay at 3.75% for rest of 2026

  • Current Bank Rate is 3.75% (Bank of England, UK central bank)
  • The MPC voted 8–1 to hold the rate on 30 April 2026, with one member favouring a rise to 4% (MoneySavingExpert, consumer finance authority)
  • This is the third consecutive hold since the rate was cut to 3.75% in December 2025 (Equals Money, economic calendar provider)

Factors influencing the rate decision

  • UK CPI inflation stands at 3.3% — above the Bank’s 2% target (Bank of England, UK central bank)
  • The MPC warned of “second-round effects” in price and wage-setting (MoneySavingExpert, consumer finance authority)
  • Geopolitical tensions, especially in the Middle East, could push energy prices higher and delay cuts
The paradox

Inflation is above target, yet the MPC is holding rather than raising — the trade-off between supporting growth and containing price rises has rarely been more delicate. For borrowers, this means rates are unlikely to drop quickly, but they are also unlikely to spike.

The pattern: the base rate appears stuck at 3.75% until inflation convincingly heads back toward 2% and wage growth cools. Analysts at money.co.uk say the earliest cut is now priced for the August meeting, but that date remains uncertain.

The Bank of England’s MPC is likely to hold rates at 3.75% through 2026, meaning borrowers should not expect significant relief soon.

When can we expect interest rates and mortgage rates to go down again?

Connection between base rate and mortgage rates

Mortgage rates are not directly set by the Bank of England — they move with swap rates, which reflect market expectations of future base rates. However, the two are closely linked. When the base rate falls, lenders can reduce their standard variable rates, and fixed‑rate deals also become cheaper because swap rates anticipate the cuts.

Forecast for mortgage rates: Will they reach 4% again?

  • Average 2‑year fixed rates have dropped from over 6% in late 2023 to around 4.5% in May 2026 (HomeOwners Alliance, property advice charity)
  • Some analysts predict average rates could approach 4% again by late 2026 or early 2027, if base rate cuts materialise (MoneySavingExpert, consumer finance authority)
  • Geopolitical events — especially energy price spikes — could reverse the trend quickly
Why this matters

If you are coming off a cheap fix, waiting for 4% deals may cost you months of higher payments. The catch: locking a 5‑year fix at 4.5% now means you miss out if rates drop to 4% next year. For risk‑averse borrowers, the premium for certainty may be worth paying.

The trade-off: for every month you wait for lower rates, you pay more now — unless your current deal has a low early‑repayment penalty. Calculate break‑even points using a mortgage calculator before deciding.

Should I fix for 2 or 5 years now?

Pros and cons of a 2‑year fixed‑rate mortgage

Upsides

  • Lower initial rates than 5‑year fixes in many cases
  • Flexibility to re‑mortgage when rates are expected to be lower
  • Shorter commitment – useful if you plan to move or overpay

Downsides

  • If rates don’t fall, you face higher payments sooner
  • Less protection against unexpected hikes
  • Product fees may eat into any short‑term saving

Pros and cons of a 5‑year fixed‑rate mortgage

Upsides

  • Certainty for five years – no need to worry about rate changes
  • Lower monthly payments than current SVR
  • Good for retirees or those on fixed incomes

Downsides

  • Higher rate than a 2‑year fix in most cases
  • If rates fall, you are locked in and miss savings
  • Early‑repayment charges (ERCs) are steep in years 1–3

How your personal circumstances affect the choice

Your age, retirement timeline, and risk tolerance matter more than the rate forecast. A 2‑year fix suits borrowers who can absorb small rate rises and want to bet on cheaper deals soon. A 5‑year fix suits anyone who prefers a predictable monthly budget, especially if retirement is near (HomeOwners Alliance, property advice charity).

What this means: if you are over 60, a 5‑year fix often makes sense because the peace of mind outweighs the marginal extra cost. For younger borrowers with growing incomes, the flexibility of a 2‑year deal can pay off.

Can a 70 year old woman get a 30‑year mortgage?

Age limits for UK mortgages: what lenders consider

  • Yes, retirees can obtain 30‑year mortgages; age alone is not a disqualifier (HomeOwners Alliance, property advice charity)
  • Many lenders impose a maximum age at the end of the mortgage term (typically 75–85), so a 70‑year‑old may get a 15‑year term rather than 30
  • Specialist lenders, such as those listed on money.co.uk, offer more flexible age limits

Retirement income and affordability assessments

  • Lenders consider all income: state pension, private pensions, part‑time earnings, and investment income
  • Affordability is the key factor – lenders use stress tests to check you can still pay if rates rise
  • Some lenders will extend the term up to age 90 if there is a clear repayment plan

The implication: a 70‑year‑old woman with a solid pension and low debts can absolutely get a mortgage — but the term may be shorter than 30 years. Check specialist lenders and compare mortgage calculators to see what you can afford.

Timeline: Key dates for UK interest rates

  • December 2025 – Bank of England cuts base rate to 3.75% (Equals Money, economic calendar provider)
  • February 2026 – MPC holds rate at 3.75% (first hold)
  • March 2026 – MPC holds again (second hold)
  • 30 April 2026 – MPC votes 8‑1 to hold, one member votes to raise to 4% (MoneySavingExpert, consumer finance authority)
  • 18 June 2026 – next scheduled MPC decision announcement (Bank of England, UK central bank)
  • August 2026 – MPC meeting (potential first cut, if inflation eases)
  • End of 2026 – base rate expected to remain at 3.75% (expert consensus)
What to watch

If inflation stays above 3% or global energy prices spike, the MPC could hold through 2026 and even consider a hike. Borrowers should not assume a cut is guaranteed in August.

The implication: borrowers should prepare for rates to stay higher for longer if inflation remains sticky.

Clarity check: confirmed facts vs what remains uncertain

Confirmed facts

  • Next BoE decision date is 18 June 2026 (Bank of England MPC dates page)
  • Current base rate is 3.75% (Bank of England official rate page)
  • The MPC meets eight times a year (money.co.uk, mortgage comparison site)
  • Inflation was 3.3% as of April 2026, above the 2% target (Bank of England)
  • The MPC voted 8–1 to hold on 30 April 2026 (MoneySavingExpert, consumer finance authority)
  • Base rate peaked at 5.25% in 2023 (HomeOwners Alliance, property advice charity)
  • Inflation fell below 2% in September 2024 for the first time in three years (money.co.uk)

What’s unclear

  • Whether the base rate will be cut in June, August, or later in 2026
  • The exact path of mortgage rates – influenced by swap markets and geopolitical events
  • Whether average mortgage rates will reach 4% again in the near term
  • The impact of Middle East tensions on energy prices and UK inflation

The pattern: while the path of rates is uncertain, the data points provide a solid foundation for planning.

What experts are saying

“The MPC’s decision to hold rate for the third consecutive time reflects the balancing act between above‑target inflation and a fragile economy. Borrowers should plan for rates to stay around 3.75% for longer.”

— Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee, statement following April 2026 decision

“If you can lock a 5‑year fix at 4.5% without a huge product fee, I’d take it. The risk that rates don’t fall as much as expected is real.”

— Mortgage industry analyst, cited by MoneySavingExpert

“Retirees should not assume age will block them from a mortgage. Lenders care about affordability, not the date on your passport.”

— HomeOwners Alliance, property advice charity

The consensus among experts is that borrowers should not expect rapid changes but should plan for a stable rate environment.

What this means for you

For UK borrowers, the next interest rate decision on 18 June 2026 is unlikely to bring an immediate cut, but it will set the tone for the rest of the year. If you are remortgaging in 2026, the safest move is to compare 2‑year and 5‑year fixes now and lock a rate after the announcement. Waiting for 4% deals carries the risk that you pay more in the meantime. For the 70‑year‑old borrower, mortgage options exist — but you may need a shorter term or a specialist lender. The choice between flexibility and certainty is yours, but it must align with your income, age, and tolerance for uncertainty.

Additional sources

uswitch.com, tembomoney.com

For a deeper look at how the Bank of England’s next move could affect your finances, see our analysis of Bank of England interest rate cut predictions.

Don't miss these

Frequently asked questions

What is the Bank of England base rate right now?

The current Bank Rate is 3.75%, set by the MPC at its December 2025 meeting and held at that level since (Bank of England official rate page).

How often does the Bank of England change interest rates?

The MPC meets eight times per year and can change rates at any of those meetings (money.co.uk, mortgage comparison site).

Where can I watch or read the Bank of England interest rate announcement?

The announcement is published at 12:00 noon on the decision day on the Bank of England website and covered live by major news outlets (Bank of England MPC dates page).

How does the base rate affect my mortgage payments?

Mortgages on a standard variable rate (SVR) move directly with the base rate. Fixed‑rate mortgages are priced based on swap rates, which reflect market expectations of future base rates (HomeOwners Alliance, property advice charity).

Will my savings rate change when the base rate changes?

Savings accounts often follow the base rate, but not immediately or in full. Fixed‑rate savings accounts lock a rate for the term (MoneySavingExpert, consumer finance authority).

What is the difference between base rate and swap rate?

The base rate is set by the Bank of England. Swap rates are market‑determined rates used by lenders to price fixed mortgages. Swap rates predict future base rates (money.co.uk, mortgage comparison site).

Can the Bank of England raise rates unexpectedly?

The MPC can meet between scheduled dates if needed, but historically it only changes rates at scheduled meetings and gives clear warnings. An emergency hike is rare but possible during a crisis (Bank of England).